At civil war's door - posted at 04:16

Things are not looking good in Iraq. This does not surprise me.

There are serious problems there that significantly predate the arbitrary post-WWI gluing together of several regions with no regard to religion, race, ethnicity, culture, or history. There are people that think that simply giving them the vote will solve these issues. Has that worked in our own country? Have our minority groups been placated and deterred from bringing up serious inequality issues simply because they can cast their opinion every couple of years in November? You can't just tell them to shut up and color because they have suffrage.

The problem in Iraq is even worse. In the United States, a horribly oppressed (read: enslaved) population was gradually elevated to higher and higher social status (not to say that this process is complete). That minority group never enjoyed the sort of power in this country that the Sunnis had in Iraq. Power corrupts. The fact that they are no longer in possession of that power does not imply that the corrupting influence has left. Having exhausted whatever legal recourses they had to attempt to regain it, of course they are going to do what they view as necessary to maintain their place in society. We'd like to put a pretty face on what's happening over there and say they enjoyed free elections but you can't change the reality of social structure so quickly. Violence was bred into these people during their time in power, and it is still very much there.

This is yet another example that forced democratization does not work: look at Haiti -- re-electing the protege of the leader who was exiled under US influence. Look at Afghanistan, where things may be fine and dandy in Kabul but rule under druglords and warlords, not democratic presidency, is the norm elsewhere in the country.

This is not to say that I wouldn't love for a true and peaceful democracy to take hold in Iraq and elsewhere. But if you want the society to flourish as a peaceful one you must eradicate the virulent influences.